SHFE Tin Consolidates at High Levels Awaiting Guidance, Weak Supply and Demand Hinder Price Breakthrough [SMM Tin Noon Commentary]

At midday on August 28, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 272,540 yuan/mt, up 1,210 yuan from the previous day's settlement price, with a gain of 0.45%. During the session, prices fluctuated at highs within a narrow range of 270,800-272,860 yuan/mt. Market trading sentiment was cautious, and trading volume mildly increased. Meanwhile, LME three-month tin continued its strong performance, closing at $34,560/mt, up $50 (a 0.14% increase) from the previous day. Signs of inventory buildup emerged, but the absolute level remained at a low for the year.

Mine disruptions persisted: Although production resumed in Myanmar's Wa State, actual ore output did not meet expectations due to the rainy season, equipment, and explosive supply constraints, leading to a tight balance in raw material replenishment;

Demand showed clear divergence: Traditional sectors such as solder, consumer electronics, home appliances, and tinplate were still in the off-season, with slow inventory destocking in consumer electronics dragging down orders. PV welding strip demand improved MoM, supported by high production schedules for components, but new areas like AI had yet to see significant growth, resulting in overall insufficient demand resilience. The spot market struggled to catch up, with high prices suppressing purchase willingness. Downstream buyers mainly restocked small quantities based on rigid demand, while a tug-of-war between traders refusing to budge on prices and end-users' wait-and-see attitude led to low transaction activity.

Looking ahead into the afternoon, SHFE tin is expected to continue its pattern of fluctuating at highs. Significant resistance exists at 275,000 yuan/mt, with cost support at 272,000 yuan/mt. A breakthrough will require guidance from macro data or major changes in the mine situation. If US PCE data reinforces interest rate cut expectations, it may stimulate a short-term test of the upper range. However, if Myanmar's production resumes faster or demand weakens further, the risk of a medium-term correction remains. It is suggested to monitor signals of increased spot transactions and the sustainability of PV welding strip orders.